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Author Topic: The New Car Saga (and general auto chat)  (Read 158892 times)

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DaveBSC

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Re: Thinking about a new car, need some help.
« Reply #850 on: May 02, 2013, 06:58:57 AM »

The extended range of the Volt doesn't make up for my complaints and the premium price in comparison to the Leaf. Also the Volt apparently is not in production currently and the only Volt's they had were new 2012 models and they could not offer a lease on them because of that. Chevy missed the mark, it's too cramped, too expensive, and doesn't handle well. Nissan however seems to have hit a home run now that they are making them in the US and can thus drop the price to current levels. Saying that, though, I would go with the Leaf even if price were no object. It's a better car, period.

They are really two different things, the Leaf is definitely suitable as a second car or for somebody who only goes on short trips. For someone who needs to regularly travel or has a long-ish commute and can't charge at work, it's not really suitable. Obviously the technology in the volt is very different than HSD or IMA, but in practical terms it's basically a hybrid that buys you more range in EV mode. The Volt could easily be someone's only car, regardless of their travel plans. It really competes more directly with the plug-in Prius than the Leaf.

GM themselves have said that the Volt is still a work in progress and they expect gen 2 to be considerably improved.

Incidentally, that's where I see the future of mainstream cars going in the next 20 years or so - Volt style extended range hybrids with some sort of combustion engine acting as an on board generator. The Volt uses an Ecotec 4-cyl because that's what was lying around, but there's all kinds of possibilities for alternative engine types - gas turbines, bio-diesel, etc. 
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Maxvla

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Re: Thinking about a new car, need some help.
« Reply #851 on: May 02, 2013, 07:46:09 AM »

I realize they are different. The additional price for the Volt covers it's ability to be a 1 car solution. The Volt simply has too much stuff. It's far too compromised by 'what ifs'. It isn't a comfortable car because they built it on a platform that was too small to hold everything they decided to cram in there.

There was a post by Chevy recently that stated the next gen Volt will be cheaper to produce by about $10,000. Hopefully at least half of that gets passed on to the customer.

I don't agree that the future is generator driven EVs. I think those will continue to be too much of a compromise to be affordable, and too weighty to drive well. 100 mile range pure EV is the future of inexpensive transportation. Hybrids will be similarly priced and offer good enough efficiency to steal range anxious customers from the lower priced generator EVs. Generator EVs could thrive in the luxury market, though. Dress it up as a Cadillac, which already weigh close to a Volt, and they will sell quite well. I would certainly rather have a generator EV Cadillac than a V8. The interior of the Volt was really nice, near luxury standard, it was just too small. Something that would certainly be improved if put on a luxury platform. The level of sound deadening in a high end luxury car would mesh extremely well with an EV. Driving down the highway with just a whisper of wind noise and very little tire noise... Who cares if it handles like a tour bus, it's for older people to be transported in comfort.
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Anaxilus.

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Re: Thinking about a new car, need some help.
« Reply #852 on: May 02, 2013, 08:59:15 AM »

Funny you say that.  I had my eye on Cadillac ELR development over the past few years.  Sadly I think it came out a bit too soft looking compared to the concept for me, maybe a V version if it survives.

The thing about the Tesla is that's it is more than range that gives it the edge.  It's a performance beast that launches like a rocket and doesn't handle too bad either.  Plus the design is pleasing enough to the eye.  Range is a big deal.  Plugging in only benefits me if I can mooch from someone else rather than feed it myself at home.

Based on my future car matrix, my next sedan will be an EV w/ proper range, AWD, great comfort and room, low noise, and launches off the line like a Cheetah.  At this point it's either a future Tesla, Lexus or Audi.  Hopefully w/ an HOV sticker if I'm still in California by then. 
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Maxvla

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Re: Thinking about a new car, need some help.
« Reply #853 on: May 02, 2013, 05:04:36 PM »

Mike, how often do you go more than 100 miles round trip before having a period of 4 hours at home to recharge? I understand the Tesla is a sports EV and there is a draw to that, but I'm hoping they will offer cheaper models with less range that could come close to competing with a top trim Leaf at around $35-40k. It's just wasteful for me to have a Model S with 250 mile range when I would never use it. Even with 250 mile range, that still would not be enough for me. Round trip to Dallas is 426 miles, round trip to Austin is around 850 miles. My maximum daily round trip is about 80 miles worst case scenario, my typical daily round trip is about 10 miles, so any EV with a range beyond 100 is waste. I'd have to rent a gas car for my trips anyway.
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DaveBSC

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Re: Thinking about a new car, need some help.
« Reply #854 on: May 02, 2013, 05:21:01 PM »

I don't agree that the future is generator driven EVs. I think those will continue to be too much of a compromise to be affordable, and too weighty to drive well. 100 mile range pure EV is the future of inexpensive transportation. Hybrids will be similarly priced and offer good enough efficiency to steal range anxious customers from the lower priced generator EVs. Generator EVs could thrive in the luxury market, though. Dress it up as a Cadillac, which already weigh close to a Volt, and they will sell quite well. I would certainly rather have a generator EV Cadillac than a V8. The interior of the Volt was really nice, near luxury standard, it was just too small. Something that would certainly be improved if put on a luxury platform. The level of sound deadening in a high end luxury car would mesh extremely well with an EV. Driving down the highway with just a whisper of wind noise and very little tire noise... Who cares if it handles like a tour bus, it's for older people to be transported in comfort.

I disagree. Even the absolute lowest cost car on the market, most likely a poverty spec Nissan Versa, can drive from NY to LA. Of course you wouldn't want to actually do that IN a poverty spec Nissan Versa, the point is you can. Everybody replacing their cars with 100 mile or even 150 mile EVs is just not going to happen, because nobody is going to accept even a best case scenario 3 hour recharge on the chance that they have to drive 151 miles, not when you can refill an ICE car in about 2 minutes. That's just too much of a step backwards in terms of what people expect out of a car.

When you need the ICE to drive the wheels directly as in a conventional hybrid, you need it to perform like a regular engine. You can use Atkinson cycle to increase efficiency a bit, maybe use a turbocharger with the electric motor solving the turbo lag problem, but that doesn't really help you when gasoline is $10/gallon, and because of the way diesel engines work, diesel hybrids aren't really a great solution either.

The engine acting as a generator is an entirely different can of worms. You no longer need fast throttle response and a useful rev range of 1,000-6000rpm+. All you need is for the engine to run at peak efficiency, and that's where the gas turbine comes into its own. You get more power out of less weight than the Volt's piston engine, and turbines can burn pretty much anything. They are unquestionably 15-20 years out, but unlike hydrogen fuel cell cars which are perpetually 20 years out, a turbine powered ER hybrid is actually doable, and importantly, there's no sacrifice of the pure EV.
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Anaxilus.

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Re: Thinking about a new car, need some help.
« Reply #855 on: May 02, 2013, 05:50:03 PM »

Mike, how often do you go more than 100 miles round trip before having a period of 4 hours at home to recharge? I understand the Tesla is a sports EV and there is a draw to that, but I'm hoping they will offer cheaper models with less range that could come close to competing with a top trim Leaf at around $35-40k. It's just wasteful for me to have a Model S with 250 mile range when I would never use it. Even with 250 mile range, that still would not be enough for me. Round trip to Dallas is 426 miles, round trip to Austin is around 850 miles. My maximum daily round trip is about 80 miles worst case scenario, my typical daily round trip is about 10 miles, so any EV with a range beyond 100 is waste. I'd have to rent a gas car for my trips anyway.

Every trip to LA (50 one way) and then you have semi regular jaunts to Vegas (300 one way).  I'd love to never plug a car in at home, that should fall on wherever I park it.  Solar celled car ports are getting more popular which are nicer than normal charging stations.  Keeps the elements and bird crap off your car. 

Yeah, reducing range will never put a Tesla w/ luxury amenities and other advantages going from 0-62 in 4.2 secs at the price level of Leaf.  I mean, really.... :-Z   

Why are you comparing a luxury GT sedan to a city car?  What's next, Kia Soul versus Rolls Royce Phantom?
« Last Edit: May 02, 2013, 05:55:28 PM by Analixus »
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Maxvla

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Re: Thinking about a new car, need some help.
« Reply #856 on: May 02, 2013, 05:55:30 PM »

I disagree. Even the absolute lowest cost car on the market, most likely a poverty spec Nissan Versa, can drive from NY to LA. Of course you wouldn't want to actually do that IN a poverty spec Nissan Versa, the point is you can. Everybody replacing their cars with 100 mile or even 150 mile EVs is just not going to happen, because nobody is going to accept even a best case scenario 3 hour recharge on the chance that they have to drive 151 miles, not when you can refill an ICE car in about 2 minutes. That's just too much of a step backwards in terms of what people expect out of a car.
I think you may be misunderstanding me. I am not expecting everyone to only use a 100 mile EV. I expect them to use a 100 mile EV and rent a gas car (or hybrid/turbine) for distances greater than that. If it is a multicar family I expect there to be one hybrid/turbine capable of hauling a family of 4-5 and all others would be 100 mile EVs. A pure gas car will soon be in the minority. Trucks will continue burning fuel for a while, but we may see hybrid trucks soon to increase efficiency and help with low end torque. Semi trucks will always be 100% fuel unless we somehow get power installed in the roads.
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DaveBSC

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Re: Thinking about a new car, need some help.
« Reply #857 on: May 02, 2013, 06:18:15 PM »

I think you may be misunderstanding me. I am not expecting everyone to only use a 100 mile EV. I expect them to use a 100 mile EV and rent a gas car (or hybrid/turbine) for distances greater than that. If it is a multicar family I expect there to be one hybrid/turbine capable of hauling a family of 4-5 and all others would be 100 mile EVs. A pure gas car will soon be in the minority. Trucks will continue burning fuel for a while, but we may see hybrid trucks soon to increase efficiency and help with low end torque. Semi trucks will always be 100% fuel unless we somehow get power installed in the roads.

I think you're seriously overestimating the desire that people will have to rent cars when they otherwise wouldn't have to, as well as the importance most people would place on weight savings and handling. Let's say Honda can sell you an EV Pilot with a 100 mile range, or an ER hybrid version that can run for 50 miles on battery before the generator has to turn on. The choice is obvious. Nobody is going to care if the EV version is a bit lighter or handles a bit better.

In order for the EV version to make any sense at all it would have to be massively less expensive, and that seems unlikely. A purpose built generator with an extremely simple transmission as opposed to an adapted piston engine just wouldn't add that much cost.

For sports cars, hot hatchbacks and cars like that, yes pure electric will probably replace the ICE in those cars. For mainstream cars though, and especially SUVs and crossovers, I think the ER hybrid is far more likely.
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Maxvla

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Re: Thinking about a new car, need some help.
« Reply #858 on: May 02, 2013, 06:18:29 PM »

Every trip to LA (50 one way) and then you have semi regular jaunts to Vegas (300 one way).  I'd love to never plug a car in at home, that should fall on wherever I park it.  Solar celled car ports are getting more popular which are nicer than normal charging stations.  Keeps the elements and bird crap off your car. 
Grats on beating the odds then. I don't think an EV (even a model S) would ever work for you if your Vegas trips are semi regular. There would need to be more infrastructure to support that. Currently you would have to make sure hotel you stay at has a plug in and then hope they aren't all taken. Perhaps in the future a higher percentage of parking lots will have them, and they will have more spots per parking lot. Home charged EV makes the most sense though. If your EV doesn't have range for that, you go hybrid/turbine, but the vast majority (95% actual stat, not made up) of people drive 37 miles per day or less. I think putting chargers everywhere is a waste. Put that money towards that turbine research. Let EV handle short commutes, hybrid/turbine for everything else.

Quote (selected)
Yeah, reducing range will never put a Tesla w/ luxury amenities and other advantages going from 0-62 in 4.2 secs at the price level of Leaf.  I mean, really.... :-Z   

Why are you comparing a luxury GT sedan to a city car?  What's next, Kia Soul versus Rolls Royce Phantom?
Only reason they are compared is just lack of selection. It is natural to compare the handful of EVs regardless of the price because there are so few. The other reason I bring up Tesla is because they are supposedly already working on exactly what I describe, though my price point is likely lower than what they have in mind. Leafs will continue to get cheaper while maintaining range or slightly increasing. By the time Tesla comes out with a shorter range smaller sporty but cheaper car, perhaps a top level leaf is more like $30-32k instead of $35-37k. A Tesla that is $40-45k with 100-150 mile range would be similar to stepping from a VW to an Audi. Sportier, more luxurious, more comfortable, better support/service, and more ego stroking, though still gets you from the same point A to point B, not further.
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Maxvla

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Re: Thinking about a new car, need some help.
« Reply #859 on: May 02, 2013, 06:36:19 PM »

I think you're seriously overestimating the desire that people will have to rent cars when they otherwise wouldn't have to, as well as the importance most people would place on weight savings and handling. Let's say Honda can sell you an EV Pilot with a 100 mile range, or an ER hybrid version that can run for 50 miles on battery before the generator has to turn on. The choice is obvious. Nobody is going to care if the EV version is a bit lighter or handles a bit better.

In order for the EV version to make any sense at all it would have to be massively less expensive, and that seems unlikely. A purpose built generator with an extremely simple transmission as opposed to an adapted piston engine just wouldn't add that much cost.

For sports cars, hot hatchbacks and cars like that, yes pure electric will probably replace the ICE in those cars. For mainstream cars though, and especially SUVs and crossovers, I think the ER hybrid is far more likely.
People tend to have a negative attitude towards rental but often once you get in the car, that negativity is largely forgotten. The mindset would have to change, but if I can do it anyone can. My recent rental was completely seamless and even if I had paid for it myself reduced to 2-3 days instead of over a week it wouldn't have been expensive at all. They picked me up and delivered me back when I wanted. The car was a Camry so it felt like driving a box, but it was comfortable, reliable, and got the job done. I could certainly handle 3 trips a year in a Camry.

It remains to be seen about the pricing of a turbine car. Currently your example would be a price difference of at least $5000 if not $10000. It isn't so obvious when you factor that in. You seem to think a turbine will not add appreciable cost to an EV and I hope you are right, then I would agree that pure EV has no future, but I can't see the prices being close enough. Just like diesels now, I think you will find turbine equipped cars at higher initial prices and also in higher trim to help offset more cost. Look at the Cruze that starts at $16k, the Eco is probably the better comparison at 20k w/auto. The diesel is a full 5k more partially for the engine and partially because its wrapped in a higher trim. This is what I expect to see in terms of price differences between EV and turbine EV.
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